NETANYAHU, TRAPPED BY HAMAS' 'YES,' IS DRIVING A WEDGE BETWEEN ISRAEL AND THE U.S.

Netanyahu, Trapped by Hamas' 'Yes,' Is Driving a Wedge Between Israel and the U.S.

Hamas' announcement that it accepts the proposed cease-fire deal took Israel by surprise, given the crisis in the talks over the past few days. Israel's political leadership is level the patently false claims that U.S. President Joe Biden has abandoned Israel. And while Jerusalem keeps sending delegations to Egypt, the IDF is increasing the military pressure and operating to the east of Rafah

May 07th, 06AM May 07th, 09AM

Israel was caught by surprise Monday night when Hamas announced that it had accepted the mediators' proposal for a hostage deal. Over the past few days, the negotiations had appeared on the point of total collapse.

Earlier Monday, the Israel Defense Forces demanded that some 100,000 Palestinians evacuate their homes in the eastern edges of Rafah, in what appeared to be preparations for the much-heralded invasion of the city.

But then came the U-turn of Hamas, which notified the Egyptian and Qatari mediators of its decision. The deal in its first stage is supposed to include the release of 33 of the 132 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas, an unknown member of which are still alive, in exchange for a cease-fire and the release of several hundred Palestinian prisoners. However, Israel's agreement to the proposal will be required first.

In the meantime, the IDF took control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah Border Crossing overnight into Tuesday, and took over a 3.5 kilometer (2.17 miles) corridor dividing Egypt and Gaza. These moves, too, must be seen as part of the ongoing negotiations.

The big question pertains to the nature of the cease-fire proposal. For the past few months, the main obstacle to a deal has been Hamas' demand that it include a full withdrawal of IDF forces alongside a complete cessation of the fighting. Hamas recently also demanded American guarantees in view of repeated statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he intended to order the IDF to take Rafah. Israeli political sources said last night that Egypt and the United States may have reached an understanding behind Israel's back to update the Egyptian proposal that Israel accepted two weeks ago.

This seems to be an initial signal from Netanyahu that he will reject the proposal following Hamas' positive response (which we do not yet know the exact nature of). Just a couple of days ago, the prime minister and his spokespeople claimed that Israeli media were making false accusations against him that he was trying to sabotage the talks while putting the blame on Hamas. It now appears that he will once again give a negative answer. The move will be justified by the claim that Israel needs to ensure that Hamas is defeated and by dubious claims of American trickery (claims against the same American administration that last month approved an additional $14 billion in aid to Israel). In practice, the main reason will be Netanyahu's fear that his coalition will fall apart and he will lose his right-wing voter base.

In the end, it seems that the mediators discharged their duties faithfully. They offered Hamas a proposal that Israel had already agreed to but made a small number of changes. They did not take a side but made a classic compromise proposal that is still conditional on Israel's agreement. In other words, the chances of a breakthrough in the negotiations are still low. But perhaps the Hamas leadership by responding positively has managed to drive a wedge between Israel and the United States. Many families of hostages Monday night demanded that Israel accept the Egyptian proposal in view of Hamas' response, so that the hostages can begin to return home. It remains to be seen how the National Unity Party ministers in the war cabinet, Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot, will respond to the change in Hamas' position and to Netanyahu's apparent negative response.

There is enormous importance, both moral and humane, to the return of the hostages, but we should not delude ourselves: Accepting the deal will not be an Israeli victory or a Hamas capitulation, but an Israeli recognition of the limits of power. It was no coincidence that last night thousands took to the streets of Rafah and the ruins of Khan Yunis to celebrate following the news that a cease-fire may be possible. Clearly the celebrations represent the desire of the residents of Gaza to reduce the suffering caused them by the war. But we must understand that the Palestinians will see such an agreement not as a defeat, but as a victory.

Right now, it is more important for Hamas to maintain its rule and territorial integrity in Gaza than the release of prisoners. If IDF forces withdraw from the corridor in the midst of the process of releasing the hostages or even at its end, this will be a huge achievement for the terrorist organization. Hamas and the entire Gaza Strip have been his hard and the damages sustained will be felt for years, but if this is how the war ends, it will not be a stinging defeat for Hamas.

Gearing up for Rafah

All this is happening against the background of military moves in Gaza. Early Monday morning, the IDF demanded the evacuation of villages east of Rafah and the city's eastern neighborhoods, an area that lies near the Philadelphi route, on the border between Gaza and Egypt.

This is a fairly aggressive step, taken a day after four soldiers were killed by Hamas rocket fire near the Kerem Shalom border crossing. But it still doesn't mean Israel is about to invade Rafah.

First, announcements were sent to Egypt, Jordan and international organizations. After that, they were sent to Rafah residents via air-dropped fliers as well as text messages. They were aimed mainly at people in the rural area on Rafah's outskirts. Overnight into Tuesday, the IDF began taking control of the Rafah Crossing area.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant's office released pictures Monday night that showed him with senior IDF officers approving plans for additional operations in Gaza. In a conversation with the parents of hostages earlier in the day, Gallant said that resuming military pressure on Hamas is necessary to force it to soften its positions.

Israel announced that it was expanding the safe zone in Mawasi, an agricultural area on the coast between Khan Yunis and Rafah, with the goal of encouraging Gazans in Rafah to move there. But both Palestinians in Gaza and international organizations complained that the area lacks the necessary infrastructure to absorb masses of displaced persons from Rafah.

Aside from the tensions over the hostage deal, a forcible evacuation of the population from an area near the Egyptian border is likely to spark tensions both between Israel and Washington and between Israel and Cairo. Ever since the war began, the Egyptians have feared that an even bigger humanitarian disaster would push hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into Egypt's Sinai Peninsula.

Immediately after the war started, when several ministers spoke to the media about expelling Gazans to Sinai, the Egyptians warned Netanyahu not to do this. Any move near the border will therefore have to involve prior coordination with them and avoid direct friction between the IDF and Egyptian forces.

Senior American officials, including Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, reiterated Monday their demand that Israel ensure a careful evacuation of Rafah residents from the city if the IDF plans to operate there. In closed conversations, the Americans have apparently been warning Netanyahu in stronger terms.

He also had another telephone conversation with U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday. Biden demanded that he reopen Kerem Shalom, which was closed after Sunday's rocket attack, so humanitarian aid could get through.

And up north ...

Continued fighting in Gaza would make it much harder to reach any kind of agreement to end the fighting on the Lebanon border. Every day, the IDF continues to kill members of Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorist organizations in systematic attacks on southern Lebanon.

Nevertheless, Hezbollah periodically manages to cause Israeli casualties, mainly by firing antitank missiles and what has recently become its most effective weapon, "suicide" drones. That's what happened again on Monday, near Metula. Three people were wounded.

Hezbollah generally employs simple but effective tactics. First, it launches a small drone to take precise photographs of the border area and the targets it plans to attack. Then it sends the suicide drone, which attacks the targets based on prior intelligence.

The fact that these drones are small aircraft that fly relatively short distances at low altitudes makes it harder for the IDF to identify and down them. In some cases, the warning siren hadn't even been activated when the drone hit.

Most of the casualties Israel has suffered in the north recently were from drone strikes. And in cases where the troops defending the border don't sufficiently maintain operational discipline, such strikes are likely to do more damage.

2024-05-07T03:11:47Z dg43tfdfdgfd