HOSTAGE, CEASE-FIRE TALKS WILL DETERMINE THE FUTURE OF RAFAH OPERATION
Hostage, Cease-fire Talks Will Determine the Future of Rafah Operation
The Israeli army has taken control of the Rafah border crossing and eastern part of the Philadelphi corridor, to pressure Hamas for a hostage deal. But this could slide into the conquest of Rafah - which threatens to collapse negotiations and endanger the hostages lives
May 07th, 22PM May 07th, 22PMThe Israeli military operation in Rafah, which on Tuesday included taking over the Rafah border crossing and the eastern part of the Philadelphi corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border, is taking place in the space that lies between Israel's two war aims: the dismantling of Hamas' military capabilities and the release of Israeli hostages. Israel has chosen, for now, to embark on a limited operation which at this point will not entail a direct diplomatic confrontation with the U.S. and Egypt.
In a very optimistic scenario, the military pressure now exerted on Rafah, after months of treading water, may actually help facilitate a hostage deal. But there is still an opposite danger. The limited operation around the border crossing could slide into the conquest of Rafah, as the right wing wishes, preventing any progress in reaching an agreement on the release of hostages, thereby endangering their lives.
The Rafah operation was discussed by political and military echelons for months. Given the controversy over the effectiveness of such an operation, over setting priorities between an attack in Rafah and the release of hostages, and, mainly, over American opposition to a large-scale maneuver, Israel decided on a limited version.
The war cabinet approved the entry of brigade-size combat teams from Division 162 into a 3.5 kilometer-long corridor, up to the Rafah border crossing, including its takeover. The intent is to deprive Hamas of an important symbol of power, the only exit from Gaza to the outside world since the October 7 attack. People favoring a hostage deal hope that renewed military pressure may lead to more flexibility in Hamas' positions in the negotiations. Other forces are now deployed close to the Gaza Strip, forces which may be used in additional moves.
The operation was set to begin Monday evening, but shortly before it commenced, Hamas came out with its surprise. Its leaders in Qatar announced that Hamas was accepting the mediators' proposal for a deal.
It later turned out that this was a new Egyptian proposal, which had undergone several changes after receiving Israel's assent two weeks ago. Politicians and the IDF's general staff were thrown into confusion. On one hand, Hamas' agreement could constitute a fundamental change, allowing renewed progress toward a hostage deal. On the other hand, IDF forces were close to the border fence, exposed to mortar fire, in an area in which four soldiers had been killed in a mortar barrage a day earlier.
After a short delay, it was decided to proceed with the operation. The forces met little opposition and completed the takeover of the border crossing and the eastern section of the Philadelphi corridor within hours. The IDF reported that 20 Palestinian terrorists were killed in exchanges of gunfire. Soldiers scoured the area around the crossing, with the intention of limiting destruction as much as possible. Israel took away one of Hamas' chips, and intends to use it in the future.
After capturing the border crossing, and typical of the manner in which the entire war is being conducted, reserve soldiers sent the media videos from the operation, showing a tank knocking down a road sign bearing a "Welcome to Gaza" inscription in English, a battalion commander (!) leading his men in singing "Let's get on with dismantling Rafah," and an Israeli flag demonstratively hoisted over the crossing. The videos aroused ecstasy among people on the right and journalists on social media, as if this were the famous ink-colored flag hoisted over liberated Eilat in 1948.
In effect, this was yet another demonstration of reckless and undisciplined conduct: Soldiers were dictating the manner in which this operation was depicted outside the country, thus advancing the aims of one political camp concerning the correct priorities of this war. Hoisting the flag, which was done without an order from above to do so, enraged the Egyptians, who were already looking for something to be angry about. Relations between the two sides were disrupted for a few hours, at a time when Israel needs tight coordination with the government in Cairo in order to prevent Hamas from undermining the situation along the border and disrupting IDF operations.
These are just the small problems. Just like the deaths of four soldiers near Kerem Shalom spurred the conquest of the Rafah border crossing, further casualties could spur Israel into expanding the operation into the city proper, in an attempt to reduce fire at its forces in the Philadelphi corridor.
The unnecessary show of flags, and the operation itself, have left the international community even more concerned about renewed harm to the humanitarian aid flowing into the Gaza Strip, which could be endangered by the combat taking place adjacent to central arteries and the Rafah crossing. Israel's insistence on operating in the heart of a densely populated part of Rafah could hasten a direct confrontation with the Biden administration, which the Netanyahu government has so far tried to avoid. All these entanglements could take a hostage deal off the agenda, leaving Israelis held in Gaza to die.
What Netanyahu wants
The question is what does Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu want. When Hamas' response was received, Netanyahu's associates rushed to brief journalists, saying that this was a deception, possibly done in collaboration with Egypt. There were even claims of an American betrayal of Israel, with a withholding of further support for the routing of Hamas.
Later, Netanyahu got a grip on himself and announced that a technical, less senior, team was leaving for Cairo in order to discuss Hamas' response with the mediators. For people in Israel who support a hostage deal, there is value in holding the Rafah crossing only if it advances the negotiations. For people favoring vanquishing Hamas as a prime priority, the military operation is important in itself, as one step on the road to achieving this goal.
The IDF's general staff, which supports the operation as performed, is more skeptical. In order to defeat Hamas in the long run, it will be necessary to control sizeable chunks of the Gaza Strip. Already now, following the evacuation of the northern Strip, Gaza and Khan Yunis, Hamas is restoring civilian control in areas the IDF has withdrawn from, as well as gradually restoring its military capabilities.
The main value in a Rafah operation lies in creating a new situation along the Gaza-Egypt border, an area which for years served as a freeway for smuggling arms, above and below ground. There is also value in hitting the four remaining Hamas battalions in Rafah, but this will involve prolonged combat, with much destruction in Rafah, as well as casualties among Israeli forces.
On Monday, Arab media outlets gave detailed reports regarding Hamas' response to the mediating countries. The response, apparently formulated by Yahya Sinwar himself, indicates how important it is for the Hamas leader in Gaza to preserve his control, with a total cessation of hostilities and the preservation of the Gaza Strip's territorial integrity, accompanied by international guarantees. The massive release of Palestinian prisoners has symbolic importance for him, but is apparently not his highest priority.
How many hostages?
One of the clear risks for Israel is Hamas' attempt to blur its commitment to release 33 Israelis in the first stage of the new deal. The formula it submitted indicates that it intends to include bodies as par of the deal. Up to now, Hamas is refusing to give mediators a detailed report regarding the identities and condition of the hostages it holds. Hamas says it doesn't have 33 living hostages who meet the humanitarian criteria for being released first. These include older men, women, sick and wounded hostages.
Is Hamas truly unable to meet this quota or is this cruelty for the sake of cruelty? At the end of November, during the first deal, Hamas tried to retract its commitment to return the last group of hostages and to include bodies in that group. Israel refused, and the negotiations blew up, with the two sides resuming combat.
There is no reason to believe Sinwar while he refuses to provide full details, arguing that the numbers don't meet Israel's demand. It's more likely that the Hamas leader wishes to maintain around him as many hostages as he can, as an insurance policy in case the deal falls through after the first phase, with renewed attempts made to kill him.
In any event, we are again at a dangerous juncture. The next few days' developments could decide whether the two sides are heading toward intensified combat or toward a hostage deal which, in an optimistic scenario, will herald the beginning of an end to this war.
2024-05-07T19:29:26Z dg43tfdfdgfd