COULD ISRAELIS SERIOUSLY ELECT NETANYAHU AGAIN?

Could Israelis Seriously Elect Netanyahu Again?

The latest Israeli polls give Benjamin Netanyahu and his fanatic coalition partners their highest marks since October 7. But is this just a short-lived blip, boosted by Israel's measured response to Iran, before the prime minister's political career is finally over?

April 25th, 12PM April 25th, 12PM

Finally, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's wish has been granted. Not his wish for the destruction of Hamas' military and governing capabilities, not his proclaimed longing for the return of Israeli hostages, who are wasting away and dying in Hamas captivity. It was Netanyahu's wish for a rise in the polls that came true. Maybe for this specific outcome, he had hoped a little bit harder than for the others.

Several polls following the recent teeth-chattering escalation with Iran show a consistent trend. In a new election survey commissioned by Maariv newspaper and conducted by Dr. Menachem Lazar, Netanyahu's Likud wins more than it has in all surveys Lazar has conducted in recent months, with 21 seats. This finding continues the upward creep from Likud's low point of 16 seats earlier in the war (which was just half the number Likud received in the 2022 elections).

The pre-war coalition – Likud and the far-right extremist parties Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit, and the ultra-Orthodox Shas and Torah Judaism – finally broke the long stretch of polls giving these parties together between 42 to 48 seats in most polls. Now these same parties have won 50 seats in Maariv's survey. That's still not a majority of 61, but a genuine improvement. In a Channel 13 survey last week, the original coalition did even better, with 51 seats.

Netanyahu is no doubt happiest of all about his personal ratings. In answer to the question: who is most suitable to be Israel's prime minister, he won his best ratings I can recall since October 7 (not counting DirectPolls, the company associated with Netanyahu and the far-right-wing Channel 14): 37 percent, compared to 42 percent who chose Benny Gantz, former Chief of Staff and member of the war cabinet.

Although Netanyahu is still behind, the five-point gap is a marked improvement, compared to Gantz' lead that was four times bigger than the current gap (a 20-point advantage for Gantz), back in December; in November, the gap was five times bigger than today, with Netanyahu at 26 percent and Gantz at 52 percent. Netanyahu's recovery – and Gantz's decline – look real.

Things are good for the fanatic neo-Kahanist parties too. In Maariv's survey, both Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit cross the electoral threshold – not a given in recent months – with 13 seats combined (they won 14 in the 2022 elections). In the Channel 13 poll, they won no fewer than 16 seats, surpassing their current electoral strength comfortably.

The Israeli public supports his policies (with one small problem)

There's little question about what's driving the improvement. A survey by the Israel Democracy Institute conducted from April 14-17th found that nearly 70 percent of Israelis believed Israel was correct to assassinate top Iranian generals from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Damascus, despite the Netanyahu government's extraordinary failure to anticipate even the possibility of Iran's direct attack in response.

The survey was conducted in the days immediately following one of the most terrifying moments in the history of Israel, when Iran fired a barrage of over 300 drones and missiles into the country in response to the Damascus strike, and the two sides seemed closer than ever to war. Among Jewish Israelis, 80 percent backed Israel's initial strike, despite the Iranian attack. Arab respondents, as a general rule, showed the near-opposite trend: two-thirds think, or are sure, it was not the correct decision.

The decisive support from Israeli Jews seems to contrast with a different survey from Hebrew University's Agam labs, conducted on nearly the same dates, 14-15 April. In that survey, two-thirds of Israelis (Jews and Arabs) said they feared an Iranian response, moderately or very much. Only 30 percent in total said the army was truly prepared for a war with Iran, which looked to be fully within the realm of possibility at the time. In the Hebrew University survey, just over half (52 percent) hoped that Israel would not respond.

But Israel did strike back at Iran, on April 18th – a harrowing moment that nevertheless has not sparked disaster, for now. Israeli commentary was full of satisfaction that the international community seemed to back Israel again. Therefore, despite a mixed picture in polls about the complex question of Iran, Netanyahu clearly emerged looking like the winner, and clever to boot. The public rewarded him electorally in these polls.

Finally, as Netanyahu argued recently – in a snipe at Joe Biden for suggesting he was doing damage to Israel – the public does support some of his policies. Like Netanyahu, Jewish Israelis stubbornly resist a Palestinian state in surveys. Even when framed in conjunction with formalizing the freshly proven defense alliance with those global partners who saved Israel from Iranian missiles, the proportion that supports a Palestinian state is low and won't budge. The Israel Democracy Institute asked:

"The United States and several Arab countries, such as Saudi Arabia and Jordan, helped block the Iranian missile attack on Israel. Against this backdrop, in your opinion, should Israel agree in principle to the future establishment of a Palestinian state in return for a permanent regional defense agreement?"

About one-third of all Israelis agree – practically no change in recent months from other surveys testing support for two states. Just 26 percent of Jewish Israelis agreed in the IDI poll, alongside the usual strong majority of 74 percent of Arab respondents.

Netanyahu's nightmare isn't over

Netanyahu can breathe more easily this week, but he'd be a fool if he did. The upward drift is real, but there's no way to know if it's just the six-month delayed "rally round the flag" boost he should have gotten, like most wartime leaders, following October 7. The polls might have spiked thanks to the Iranian front, but often, the fate of boosts is to fall. George H. W. Bush enjoyed stellar ratings during the first Gulf war, and was routed in the 1992 elections.

It was a mournful Passover in Israel. This is the best time of the year, when the air is warm but not yet cruelly hot, and the country shifts into low gear for a week. Yet instead of the usual holiday greetings flitting around WhatsApp, people sent long messages explaining why it's so hard to wish for a "happy" holiday, or why it's not a holiday at all. Families of hostages preferred to hold protest seders in public, or 'anti-Seders' near the prime minister's residences in Caesaria, to display their anguish and the emptiness of celebrating a 'holiday of freedom.' It makes sense. What else would they do – sit at home privately with their misery?

Fully 70 percent of Jews sampled in the IDI survey said that their mood this Passover was worse than in previous years. Nearly 70 percent said they would not go on "trips, hikes, visits, and leisure activities," mostly due to the security situation but also due to the economic situation.

It's not just general gloom and fear. The IDI survey showed more decisively than previous surveys how little confidence Israelis now have in the war itself. When asked which side has done better in the war, just a minority – 38 percent of Israelis – believe Israel comes off better. All the rest chose Hamas, both sides equally, or they just don't know. Even among Jews the portion who chose "Israel" is just slightly higher than the average in the total populations – 43 percent, still a minority.

However, a clear majority of 62 percent of Israelis believe the time has come for those responsible for the failure of October 7 to resign (they're either certain, or "think," the time has come). That includes 58 percent of the Jewish population. And just 39 percent of Israelis report feeling a high or very high level of personal security.

To be sure, given that the majority of Israelis are right-wing and about one-quarter (depending on how the question is asked) self-define as being on the firm right, many of these respondents probably believe Israel has not yet gone far enough in the war. But is that the full picture?

One particularly interesting question the IDI asked – for the first time that I can recall – is whether Israelis have seen images of the inconceivable suffering of Gazans: over 85 percent said they had. Israelis may not express sorrow for Gazans, but the majority have both seen those images and believe the war is not going well.

The prime minister can be smug about the political trends this week, but these findings are a terrible indictment of Israel's leadership. It's too soon to say with any certainty whether Netanyahu is experiencing a boom or a blip – a final gasp of survey optimism before Israelis throw him out for good.

2024-04-25T10:11:27Z dg43tfdfdgfd